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Better Safe Than SorryThe Ironies of Living with the Bomb$
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Michael Krepon

Print publication date: 2009

Print ISBN-13: 9780804760638

Published to Stanford Scholarship Online: June 2013

DOI: 10.11126/stanford/9780804760638.001.0001

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Alternative Nuclear Futures

Alternative Nuclear Futures

Chapter:
(p.133) 5 Alternative Nuclear Futures
Source:
Better Safe Than Sorry
Publisher:
Stanford University Press
DOI:10.11126/stanford/9780804760638.003.0005

Alternative nuclear futures do not come along in a vacuum or by happenstance. Nor can the future be masterfully engineered by deliberate choice. The countervailing trends are reviewed here and the major events that could well arise are also described, the fulcrums on which the nuclear future may turn. States possessing the bomb could instruct contrary lessons from the first limited nuclear exchange in history. The protecting nuclear materials that can be employed in acts of nuclear terrorism are then discussed. Additionally, five alternative pathways to the nuclear future, and the keys to achieving or foreclosing these outcomes are assessed. These pathways include abolishing nuclear weapons, nuclear anarchy, stabilizing proliferation, arms control, and dominance. The alternative nuclear future of abolition is the worthiest end state for U.S. nuclear policy, but it remains a long-term vision, many steps away.

Keywords:   alternative nuclear futures, nuclear weapons, nuclear anarchy, proliferation, arms control, dominance, abolition, U.S. nuclear

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