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Security Assurances and Nuclear Nonproliferation$
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Jeffrey W. Knopf

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780804778275

Published to Stanford Scholarship Online: June 2013

DOI: 10.11126/stanford/9780804778275.001.0001

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Libya, Nuclear Rollback, and the Role of Negative and Positive Security Assurances

Libya, Nuclear Rollback, and the Role of Negative and Positive Security Assurances

(p.89) 5 Libya, Nuclear Rollback, and the Role of Negative and Positive Security Assurances
Security Assurances and Nuclear Nonproliferation

Wyn Q. Bowen

Stanford University Press

This chapter addresses the influence of the two sets of security assurances on Libya's nuclear rollback decision. Security assurances contributed to the nonproliferation success of Libya, although their application became possible only following significant changes in its domestic political and external security context. The weapons ambitions of Libya primarily reflected security and political drivers. The Libya case showed the possible bumps that can appear during a normalization process between states when economic incentives operate in both directions. After the events of 2011, it is not clear if the Libya model still has the possibility to be attractive to other “rogue state” proliferators. It will depend on whether assurances against seeking regime change are still on the table and can be made credible to dictatorial regimes worried about their survival.

Keywords:   security assurances, Libya, nuclear rollback, nonproliferation, weapons, security

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