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Constructing Cassandra
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Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947-2001

Milo Jones and Philippe Silberzahn

Abstract

The CIA was created in 1947 in large part to prevent another Pearl Harbor. On at least four dramatic occasions, the Agency failed at this task: prior to in the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the Iranian revolution of 1978, the collapse of the USSR in 1991, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks. There has been no shortage of studies to understand how such failures happened. Until now, however, none of the explanations proffered has been fully satisfying, and sometimes competing explanations have been mutually incompatible. In contrast, this book proposes a unified, coherent and rigorous theory of intel ... More

Keywords: CIA, intelligence failure, strategic surprise, collapse of the USSR, Iranian revolution, Cuban Missile Crisis, Cassandras, Usama bin Ladin, surprise attack, intelligence reform

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2013 Print ISBN-13: 9780804785808
Published to Stanford Scholarship Online: January 2014 DOI:10.11126/stanford/9780804785808.001.0001

Authors

Affiliations are at time of print publication.

Milo Jones, author

Philippe Silberzahn, author