Domestic Coalition Shifts in War Termination since 1862
Domestic Coalition Shifts in War Termination since 1862
This chapter investigates the domestic coalition shift theory using quantitative analysis of all interstate wars since 1862. The dataset of interstate wars after World War II is reviewed, which includes all domestic coalition shifts observed on a daily basis, to increase the understanding of this alternative causal pathway. The evidence indicates that both mechanisms by which domestic coalition shifts can theoretically impact the development of an overlapping bargaining space seem to have empirical support. It also showed that the first mechanism is dominant, but they do not necessarily rule out the second (signaling) mechanism. Taken with the detailed process tracing of the causal mechanisms in the Korean War case studies, these data strongly reveal that the patterns predicted by the domestic coalition shift theory hold over a broad universe of cases and greatly enhance the understanding of war duration and war termination.
Keywords: domestic coalition shift, interstate wars, bargaining, causal mechanisms, Korean War, war duration, war termination
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