This conclusion summarizes the topics discussed in this book, the focus of which is to explore the factors that determine the potential emergence of new technologies. It discusses the factors that determine a technology's potential for improvements in cost and performance, and the factors which determine the timing of technological discontinuities. The chapter emphasizes four broad methods for achieving improvements performance and costs: (1) improvements in efficiency; (2) the introduction of radical new processes; (3) geometrical scaling and (4) improvements in “key” components. Finally, this conclusion argues that this study can help students think more effectively about the future by providing them with a better background in technological change and the reasons why some technologies experience more improvements than others.
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