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Constructing CassandraReframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947-2001$
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Milo Jones and Philippe Silberzahn

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780804785808

Published to Stanford Scholarship Online: January 2014

DOI: 10.11126/stanford/9780804785808.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM STANFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.stanford.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Stanford University Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in SSO for personal use.date: 02 March 2021

The CIA and the Future of Intelligence

The CIA and the Future of Intelligence

(p.234) 7 The CIA and the Future of Intelligence
Constructing Cassandra

Milo Jones

Philippe Silberzahn

Stanford University Press

This chapter presents an overview of the theoretical conclusions and practical implications of the book. It reveals the commonalities between surprises rooted in secrets and those rooted more in mysteries, and it uses identity and culture to get to the source of what analysts call “the problem of the wrong puzzle”. Next, the chapter positions an identity and culture based approach to intelligence failure and strategic surprises as a unified theory of intelligence failure, one that is one logically prior to but compatible with explanations previously proposed. While the chapter asserts the primacy of diagnosis over prescription, it also explores a series of practical implications for the both CIA and policymakers of an identity and culture based understanding of intelligence failure.

Keywords:   intelligence reform, intelligence cycle criticism, practical value of diversity, cognitive diversity, informative failure

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